Meta-Discussion: Survivorship Bias in Side Projects

"A meta-discussion thread questioning how much of the '$500/mo side project' success stories are survivorship bias, with community members sharing candid failure rates and practical advice on shipping."
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Maker: protocolture
no rev. info provided

Marketing Channels

Ongoing

Etsy

_benj sells Christmas tree ornaments on Etsy, using keywords, videos, and Etsy ads for traction; earned $600 gross in one year and $400 the next

Secondary

Etsy Ads

_benj notes that Etsy ads are 'not bad to get some traction, even for a brand new store'

Planned

Cults (3D printing marketplace)

protocolture published a Halloween item on Cults marketplace, waiting for the next seasonal cycle to gauge interest

Growth Levers

  • Ship more projects — with 9/10 failure rate, volume increases odds of finding a winner
  • Focus on uniqueness and emotional resonance rather than competing on price
  • Use Etsy keywords, videos, and native ads to bootstrap initial traction for new stores
  • Build a portfolio of non-seasonal products to smooth out revenue across the year
  • Leverage seasonal timing — ship seasonal products well before the relevant holiday
  • Accept that most projects will fail and treat each as a learning investment

First Customer Strategy

The thread reveals that most successful side project creators simply shipped and iterated rather than over-planning. _benj started with a single Etsy product (Christmas ornament) and built up 5-star reviews before planning expansion. The consensus is that trying many things and accepting a high failure rate is the path forward.

Pricing Insight

Etsy buyers are described as 'not on a race to the bottom for the absolute cheapest thing' but instead expect unique and resonant products. The key insight is that uniqueness commands premium pricing on platforms where buyers seek handcrafted or distinctive items.

New Market Opportunities

  • Non-seasonal Etsy products Planning to expand beyond seasonal Christmas ornaments into non-seasonal products to create more consistent revenue
  • 3D printed seasonal items Published a Halloween item on Cults marketplace; timing matters — listed a month after Halloween, waiting 10 months for the next cycle

Key Takeaways

  • • Survivorship bias is real and acknowledged — the thread is 100% survivorship bias by design since it asks for successes only
  • • A less than 10% success rate is common, but each attempt builds skills and occasionally yields a winner
  • • Shipping imperfectly beats planning perfectly — many successful projects started without overthinking
  • • Seasonal products require careful timing; missing a window means waiting a full cycle
  • • Etsy remains a viable platform for unique, emotionally resonant products where buyers value distinctiveness over lowest price
  • • Having 4-5 unshipped side hustles simultaneously is a common trap; focus and shipping discipline matter more than ideas

Sentiment Analysis

2 Pos / 3 Neu

Notable Quotes

"Less than 10% of my projects ever made anything. — pstorm"
"It's all pure survivorship bias. — goodpoint"
"Honestly more than you'd expect. Even my less successful ideas paid off at least a few hundred bucks. The more successful ones tens of thousands/yr. — alfalfasprout"
"I'd never be one of the survivors if I don't even try. — _benj"
"The key is unique and then using keywords, videos and Etsy ads are not bad to get some traction, even for a brand new store — _benj"

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